Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Are We There yet?

Get ahead of the game, rates won’t get any better . . .

Looking for commercial real estate money? It’s getting easier to find, but the status of your market and the risk of the project determines how easy and how much is available. Sounds like things are all back to normal, cause that’s how we have always described the availability of commercial dollars, both debt and equity.

If you’re in a primary market, and want to refinance your apartments, lenders are knocking at your door. (or at least looking seriously at your deal.) Secondary or tertiary markets are easing, but they’re not there yet. If you want to do the construction of a strip center in a rural market . . . Let’s just say you better not have any credit hits.

In reality, it seems as though things are on an upward trend, and as fast as they are moving the outlook is quite good for the later part of this year and on into 2011. So, there is no better time to start looking for that money than right now. If you have a project that is not a slam dunk, don’t wait, take it to a commercial broker. They will know how to structure and package your loan request better than you, after all that’s their business. And, they will know to whom and where to take it to get it financed. To get your funding, the package must be perfect, and it may take some time to find the lender/investor who says,  "yes, let’s do it!"

If you have a project that’s the 'slam dunk' take it to your banker and get it done. Interest rates are as low as you will ever see them so lock it while you can.

I've been in the commercial real estate funding arena for 30+ years and have been through way too many of these real estate cycles, thet ae the way of the market. As soon as things level out, you know the market will change. But, you only know it has changed by watching the rearview mirror, and by then its too late. Whether your project is an easy deal or a tough one, the sooner you get started on your financing quest, the better your rate will probably be. There’s no time like the present, so let’s get‘er done.

Been there, done that.

David L. Skibowski, President
The Skibowski Company LC,
Consultants and Financiers
 dls@skibowski.net
231-668-6324
http://www.1greatmortgage.com/

Monday, May 24, 2010

Here's how to get it done, Better Faster Easier. Even the hard ones.

Jennifer Hartly Skibowski-Barrett is probably one of the most knowledgeable Mortgage Advisors in the business. Let me tell you how good she really is, there are wholesale reps (good ones, from good lenders) who call Jen to ask her questions their “in house” experts couldn’t answer. It is amazing the deals she can get done, because she knows exactly what is necessary and does not inundate underwriters with incomplete or incomprehensible applications. Underwriters appreciate this, and in many cases they will put her applications toward the top of the pile, because they know it will be an easy one to get done, making for a smother process for all, Borrower, Seller, Realtor, Appraiser, Title Agent and, of course, the Bank. Jen’s extensive knowledge is not only a benefit for “normal” sales and refinances, but for those notoriously difficult short sale and foreclosure financings too. Her experience often is the only thing that allows some of those difficult deals to close.

Realtors, Buyers, Sellers, anyone who has an interest in closing a mortgage deal in Michigan and the surrounding states, will be well advised to call Jennifer Barrett now at:

Bright Green Home Loans 231-688-6334, or 
email her at J.Barrett@BrightgreenMichiga.com
or go to her webpage at: http://www.brightgreenmichigan.com/

That's My Take
Dave Skibowski

Friday, May 21, 2010

The 64 Million Dollar Question.

Everyone is searching for the answer to the sixty-four thousand million billion trillion dollar question: Are we there yet? The bottom that is? It seems as though we have been riding this roller coaster down for a long, long time, but we are noting some indicators that show a slight improvement, as though we have finally hit bottom and are starting the climb up and out of the abyss. Extreme care is required, especially from the #%@!!*&??!s (you supply the word) in Washington NOT to stall the engine and send us back down even deeper, Heaven forbid.

On the good news side, from February to April, non public payrolls rose more than 466,000, or at an annual rate fo almost 1 3/4%- the best in three years. Private payrolls are the best indicator of the type of employment that counts. We all know that Governmental payrolls are growing- they’ve hardly slowed down since the start of the recession. No, private payrolls are the ones to watch. They’re the ones paid by services providers, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers; you and me. Of course we pay the governmental workers too, but that’s done with confiscated funds, if you know what I mean. Those private payrolls reached some eight million by the first of May, still considerably below their peak at the end of 2007, and they need to increase faster, ‘cause at the present rate we won’t reach 2007’s mark for another for or five years, but at least the direction is good. If the economy can continue to create private jobs, we should see a reduction in the unemployment rate. That will get the media excited, and their spreading something besides doom and gloom should push things along even faster.

Housing inventory is still a heavy drag on the economy. Even though building permits are up considerably from last year, over 16%; last year’s were so low, that contractors and the building trades are still looking up from a pretty deep hole. If the banks would start actually lending some money the commercial construction business could take off. Apartments are in demand in many locales, but the funds to build them are hard to come by. Home sales are dropping again, ostensibly because the Government has withdrawn the eight grand bonus for buying a house. We sincerely think the longer the government stays in the game trying to help, the longer it will take to put the whole sordid mess behind us. The continuation of the government to pressuring lenders and the GSEs to approve unqualified purchasers into home ownership can only extend and exacerbate the problem. The unsold inventory needs to be reduces, but without artificial means.

The Fed, by keeping the discount rates next to nil, is keeping the resurgence going. The FOMC is careful not to say all is well, because it isn’t. They also have to be careful not to say too much that is derogatory, because it wouldn’t take much to start the trend downward again. They will keep the rates low, and not withdraw their monetary stimulus. It is much, much easier to deal with some inflation, than it is to try to restart another failed economy.

There are some wild cards out there most of which we have little or no control over. The European Union is saddled with a number of it’s constituent States/Countries- namely Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain- who, like the good old U.S. have been trying to borrow themselves into prosperity. One or more of these E.U. States could go BK, most likely Greece. Interesting that we all the while we have been hearing how upside down Greece is, few people know that California is far worse, some four times farther in the hole than Greece. And, there are a whole bunch of U.S. States who could go BK at any time. If the FED and the GOV tries to buy everyone out of trouble, in 2050 we’ll be using wheel borrows to carry enough cash to buy a loaf of bread.

The world, the country, the people need to regain their fiscal sanity. Incomes and costs don’t have to keep escalating. You can’t borrow your way to prosperity. The Beanstalk does not grow to the moon! All those clichés have meaning, and that meaning is this; don’t wait for the government to fix the problem, they are the problem. We all should know what the right thing to do is. If you don’t, read “The 5,000 year leap”, by W. Cleon Skousen. We had it right once. If we put our collective minds to the problem, we can get it right again.